Should India Keep Out of Afghanistan?
We all know that Kabul will fall to the Taliban sooner or later. The situation is grim, and there is no robust effort to stop this catastrophe. Taliban has advanced into all the regions, too quickly with brutal force.
Biden's statistics of winning a war with numbers are seemingly failing. Those 75,000 Taliban soldiers are overpowering NATO trained and equipped, 3,00,000 Afghan army.
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As on 1st week of August, half of 421 districts in Afghanistan has been taken over by the armed insurgents.
Many players are trying to correct things in Afghanistan. Everyone wants to subside the violence, starting from big regional players like India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China to fateful players like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
These countries are caught in the Afghan mess because they are all potential refugee hotspots, and any deterioration can trigger a wave of violent sympathisers.
For now, the US and NATO allies are concerned to leave, as if they have no stakes, now or later. Even though their objective is a lot messier than they inherited twenty years ago, there is no effort to stabilise before leaving.
There cannot be a peace deal from Qatar, as the US has nothing to offer. It was the revenge of the US. NATO allies were helplessly found legally obligated to fight in Afghanistan.
It is an unfinished fight with their enemy, who, now, is even more emboldened. If their assumption states that Afghanistan is a localised problem, then their calculation is absurd.
Fact that they (US-NATO) were here in the region, is writing in stone, that Afghanistan is a global problem. Quitting while leaving the situation unresolved is a mistake, which will be grave in the long run.
If the Taliban pursues their ideological war, the West is left with no choice to intervene again. It is their mess, and they need to fix it.
The world should have understood, by now, that the Taliban are a high resilience group who have survived twenty years of the American war. Now, they are thriving again.
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They have successfully gotten their opponents tired and pushed them to quit. It is their strength and strategy; however inhumane they may be branded.
As the Taliban advance towards Kabul and provincial capitals fall like a house of cards, the refugee crisis is already looming. There are people smugglers on social media arranging the routes and trafficking. Mad rush at the Kabul passport office is a vivid message that a panic exodus awaits.
A significant point to understand here is the direction towards which Afghans are fleeing. They are all heading West, into Europe, via Turkey. So the West is already in the line of impact.
Let's review the role of each significant player.
Already, the role of Pakistan is under scrutiny. They have been supporting the Taliban government right from the beginning. Austria has accused Pakistan of proxy war in Afghanistan.
The consequence of this continued outright support means good news for the Taliban. But it is going to be a bad one for Pakistan. Few months down the line, if the current Kabul government falls to the Taliban, it will also enthuse the same ideological groups in Pakistan.
Moreover, Kabul's takeover, indicating an ideological victory, will be felt in Islamabad. For these two game-changing reasons, now, Pakistan is in a fix. It can't withdraw its support from the Taliban, nor can it continue.
Once an ally of the US, Pakistan, is now on the opposite side. From its population, there is a unified opposition against the NATO interference in Afghanistan. No government in Islamabad will attempt to change that opinion, or they risk their election.
China wants to support Pakistan for two crucial reasons. First, they have investments in Pakistan, which includes the strategic trade road.
The China – Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) road project traverses south, from China to Karachi port, giving China a short trade route to the Middle East and Europe.
In addition, there is Chinese investment in energy infrastructure, mega solar farm and gas pipelines. The other important reason to support Pakistan is controlling the Taliban and their influence over Chinese Uyghur Muslims. Both these reasons are to mitigate risk.
Iran is a neighbour of Afghanistan, already overwhelmed with its problems due to the US led sanctions. Hence, they would not like to do anything, which helps the US.
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There is a silent yet a strong player in the entire quagmire of events.
Russia's role in the Qatar peace talks should have been acknowledged. They are not a party to the peace talks there. Although they are alleged to be stealth supporters of the Taliban, their participation would have helped.
Currently, Russia, too, fears the Afghan situation for the same reason as China and India. Cross border terrorism getting exported from the vast uncontrolled districts of Afghanistan will not be favourable to former soviet partners. It can easily percolate to Chechnya and other regions in Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41842285
Nothing stops Russia from finding a foothold in the region when the US is leaving, trounced and exhausted.
Where does this leave India?
India has several significant investments in Afghan public projects. Hence, have skin in the game. Leaving Afghanistan to its fate will be a betrayal to the peace-loving population there. Also, more dangerously, if Kabul falls, the entire region will become a training ground for launching attacks on Kashmir.
It has a complex common border with Afghanistan, and conducting a Balakot style surgical strike on anti-India terror camps in Afghanistan will be complicated.
Stationing troops in Afghanistan will be the same mistake the US, NATO and Soviets have made. Lessons are already learnt from its rough terrains and intricate factions.
If at all, this time though, it will be wise to be in Afghanistan, under the aegis of the United Nations Peace-Keeping mission. Then players like India, Russia, China and Pakistan can be on the same side, playing a positive role. But, them, failing to act with unity, all are bound to be in trouble.
Afghanistan already has a UN mission for development, which needs to rebrand itself to peacekeeping.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Assistance_Mission_in_Afghanistan
Let's analyse the equation of China and Pakistan with India, vis-à-vis Afghanistan.
China will avoid disturbing its relationship with India, as it has now graduated to its largest trading partner. This position, it has achieved, even after the disastrous skirmish at Galwan Valley last year.
Currently, both India and China are engaged in border talks, trying to diffuse the eyeball-to-eyeball situation. For now, it is going on well.
Both countries know their premiers have a positive outlook towards each other, and it has not come easy. Letting China take the lead in containing the Taliban will also put Pakistan's intentions in balance.
China would not like to have troubles between India and Pakistan, as its CPEC projects get vulnerable.
Pakistan will only engage with India till Kashmir's rhetoric stays alive. It is still a vote catcher in Pakistan's elections. Irrespective of the political party, their army will not let the Kashmir fire cool, as their funding is solely dependent on it.
Also, its economy is in dire condition. For now, India should maintain a status-quo, continue to guard itself against Pakistan, as it did in the past.
Letting China and Pakistan handle the Taliban is wisdom here. In turn, Pakistan has no choice but to allow a Frankenstein monster to live in its neighbourhood, with tentacles crossing its border.
It is helpless. Sooner or later, the wrath of this monster will be enough to keep Pakistan distracted away from India.
India cannot be complacent, either. It has to fortify its borders further and strictly manage internal security. There is a high probability; a refugee crisis may be pushed into India, like the Rohingyas.
India should understand that the US has strategically shifted the Taliban's problem to Russia, China, and Pakistan. Moreover, two of them, China and Pakistan, are now natural partners due to various geopolitical and historical reasons and rivals of India.
In the measure, who has more stakes in Afghanistan, it is Pakistan, China and Russia, than India.
Considering all these dynamics, India must stay out of this mess. It is a very difficult proposition though, to look away from the humanitarian crisis.
For Now, it should mimic political silence, and focus only on humanitarian interventions.
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