Is Maldives the New Cuba?

19 January 2024 

The Indian Ocean has become a crucial arena for geopolitical manoeuvring, with India and China engaging in strategic competition for influence in South Asia. 


At the heart of this geopolitical agenda lies the Maldives, a nation with a rich history, economic dependence on tourism, and complex internal politics. 



To answer this titulary question, it is important to investigate the historical context, economic dynamics, internal politics, and the evolving relationship between India and the Maldives in China’s growing influence.


From the 3rd century BCE until the 12th century CE, the Maldives was a Buddhist nation and a source of prized “kauri” shells.


The king at the time, Dhovemi, embraced Islam in 1153 century CE, marking a significant shift in the islands’ religious landscape.




Today, it boasts a population of around 500,000 spread across 1,200 islands, of which 160 are designated for tourism.


The tourism sector holds immense significance, providing 70% of employment and directly contributing 28% to GDP.



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...Dhovemi, embraced Islam in 1153 century CE, marking a significant shift in the islands’ religious landscape


                                                                        


As a ripple of tourism, the contribution to GDP may be approximately 80%. Furthermore, 90% of the tax revenue is derived from tourism, emphasizing its economic centrality.


China’s engagement with the Maldives has intensified, marked by significant agreements and investments.


The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a toll gate to China, strategically positioning the Maldives just 300 nautical miles from the Indian western coast.


Chinese goods constitute 14% of the market, and the debt trap diplomacy looms large, with roughly 50% of the Maldives’ debt owed to China. 


Concurrently, its debt-to-GDP ratio is a staggering 110%, reflecting significant economic challenges.




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...90% of the tax revenue is derived from tourism


                            


The BRI not only involves infrastructure investments but also encompasses replacing Indian imports with goods from countries like Turkey, China, UAE, and Thailand.


The Maldives experienced a shift to democracy in the 2008 elections, raising concerns for India, which had actively supported the previous regime.



The predominantly Muslim parliament has witnessed the rise of fundamentalism, with the presence of an ISIS base and an anti-India sentiment among some leaders. 


The Maldives’ internal politics involve complex partnerships, such as Islamic nationalism and the privatization of islands for tourism, which raises questions about sovereignty.


Additionally, leasing islands for tourism collaborations contradicts the notion of absolute sovereignty.


The Maldives’ geopolitical shifts are not limited to China; historical alliances and recent partnerships have shaped its foreign policy. 


The country, once aligned with Sri Lanka for tourism in the 1970s, now leans towards alliances with Turkey and China. 


The importation of radicalization through Maldivian students in Pakistan adds another layer to the internal dynamics — notably, the Maldives President’s visit to Turkey before China suggests diversifying international ties away from India.


The Maldives faces existential threats due to climate change under the constant spectre of rising sea levels. 


The United Nations recognizes the Maldives as threatened by climate change, highlighting the need for international cooperation.


Maldives’ “India First” policy emphasizes the importance of its relationship with India. 


India has intervened thrice in supporting the Maldives during political upheavals, showcasing a strategic alliance with military cooperation. India has always been Maldives’ “first responders”.


Operations such as Maitri for COVID-19 vaccine distribution, Neer for emergency water supply, and Operation Cactus in 1988 to thwart an attempted coup by Sri Lankan Tamil Mercenaries underscore India’s commitment. 


Contributions to the Maldives are numerous. 350 beds Indira Gandhi Hospital, Police academy, Naval Patrol of Economic Zone, Ports and India-driven tourism are a few of the projects and strategic cooperation that are aided by India.


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...notably, the Maldives President’s visit to Turkey before China suggests diversifying international ties away from India

                               


India’s exports, ranging from vegetables and food to medicines and construction materials, play a vital role in sustaining the Maldivian economy.


For India, maintaining a robust relationship with the Maldives is a diplomatic necessity and a strategic imperative for its regional security. 


As the geopolitical dynamics continue to unroll, the Maldives’ future trajectory will undoubtedly shape South Asia’s power dynamics.


The geopolitical undercurrents between China, India, and the Maldives, particularly the proximity of the Indian western coast to the 

Maldives and China’s increasing influence in the region, share some similarities with the historical context of the Cuban Missile Crisis involving the USA and the Soviet Union.


The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred during the Cold War when the USA and the Soviet Union were engaged in intense geopolitical rivalry.


Similarly, China and India are experiencing heightened tensions, particularly along their borders, adding a layer of complexity to their regional competition.


Geographic proximity plays a crucial role. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of the ’60s, the United States was deeply concerned about the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba, as it brought a potential threat within close range. 



Similarly, the Maldives’ proximity to the Indian western coast brings any regional strategic developments into immediate focus for India.



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...Maldives and China’s increasing influence in the region, share some similarities with the historical context of the Cuban Missile Crisis involving the USA and the Soviet Union

                                


Maldives’ role as a strategic partner for China does introduce complexities. 



The situation may not be a replica of the Cuban Missile Crisis for now, but the potential for regional tensions and power dynamics remains a significant concern.


The pertinent questions that stand out for the Indian government are:

·        What went wrong with the foreign policy, and why did a neighbouring nation heavily dependent on India suddenly change its allegiance to India’s adversary?


·        Did India’s shift to a pro-Israel stance upset the Maldives’ “India First” policy?


·        Is China being effective in encircling India with its debt-trap diplomacy?


Finally, is India near the Cuban missile crisis type of situation with China? What will be India’s recourse?

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